This is not where I hoped they’d be by season’s end.

Instead of repeatedly laughing at the Edmonton Oilers for a disastrous season, they are breathing down the neck of the Vancouver Canucks for the Pacific Division title. I hate this.

All jokes aside, the Oilers are a terrifying team. If you were to solely look at their underlying numbers, you’d probably assume that they’re the best team in the entire NHL, which I don’t even think is that much of a stretch; they’re a serious threat with a lot of encouraging pieces. They may only be ranked 2nd on the list, but again, the top four teams are essentially a coin flip for me: These guys are for real.

Here’s why I think the Edmonton Oilers are a even more dangerous than years prior:

The emergence of Evan Bouchard + Mattias Ekholm’s dominance

I really don’t understand the Evan Bouchard hate.

The 2018 tenth overall pick has blossomed into one of the league’s premier defencemen, but the signs were evident going back to last year. To be clear, I was well aware of his pedigree and profile well before and had been high on him since his draft year, but I’m a little surprised to see the production pop at the rate it’s been at this season.

On the surface, Bouchard’s counting stats didn’t jump off the page last year (8-32-40),  but it was after the Oilers traded Tyson Barrie in a deal to acquire Mattias Ekholm where Bouchard gained an opportunity to produce at a higher clip. The Canadian blueliner was promoted to both the top pair (with Ekholm) and the top powerplay unit, leading to a spike in production an underlying form (which was already great).

It’s been all roses for Bouchard this season. Him and Ekholm have combined to become what is – probably – the best defensive pair in the entire NHL, this season, and that can be backed up by both the counting stats and the underlying numbers. For all defensive pairs that have played 450 minutes or more, Ekholm and Bouchard have played over 1100 minutes and have a 63.6 xGF%, a 63.5% goals share, and 123 points in 152 combined games. Just crazy stuff.

While he hasn’t garnered the respect on a National level, Bouchard’s play has been good enough to be nominated for the Norris Trophy; even ahead of someone like Cale Makar, who despite having 8 more points has had a dip in form at 5v5. Bouchard won’t beat out Quinn Hughes for the trophy, but he should be the runner-up when it’s all said and done.

As for the rest of Edmonton’s defence…

I’m not going to lie to you, the underlying’s aren’t quite as harsh on Edmonton’s defence, but I sure am! I think a lot of context is needed when evaluating the strength of the Oilers’ defence, too: I think their top pair carries a lot of weight in determining the core’s overall value, that’s how good Ekholm and Bouchard have been this season.

Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci are deployed as the Oilers’ second pair and, by the numbers, the two have been doing great! The pair has a 54.3 xGF% in ~945 minutes played together; not bad for two players who are repeatedly picked apart by opposing fanbases. Kulak – Desharnais has a 54.7 xGF%, meaning all three of Edmonton’s defensive pairs have made positive impacts in regards to possession.

Also, a funny stat I saw: Edmonton’s bottom two defensive pairs have a better xGF% than Hughes – Hronek. Does Hronek really weigh Hughes down that much?

But here’s the thing about Edmonton’s defence that occasionally messes with them: Themselves. Basically, the team’s bottom four defencemen are all incredibly gaffe prone – meaning they are all known to, occasionally, make stupid decisions with the puck, especially Nurse and Ceci.

Against an opportunistic foe like the Canucks, for example, the Oilers could see themselves in trouble if puck mismanagement becomes an issue, but I don’t think it should rear its ugly head enough to cost them a spot in the Western Conference Final (at least it won’t be the biggest reason as to why).

The obvious

Connor McDavid is, in my opinion, the greatest hockey player to ever grace the Earth. Oh, and he just so happens to have Leon Draisaitl with him, as well. That doesn’t seem entirely fair now, does it?

Not too dissimilar from the dominance of which Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin displayed in the late 2000s and throughout the 2010s, McDavid and Draisaitl are an undeniable, galaxy destroying duo that can singlehandedly win games whenever they feel like it; those two alone makes Edmonton a consistent threat to go far every year. But, you know the old saying: “Hockey is a team sport”. You can’t win with only two guys playing at a high level, you need support.

I hate to break this to the rest of the league, but the Oilers have some really intriguing pieces throughout their forward core.

Obviously, Zach Hyman is putting together one of the most unlikely 50-goal campaigns we’ve seen in recent memory; although it probably shouldn’t be all that surprising. Hyman has consistently proven to be one of the smartest complimentary players in the entire NHL, spanning across several seasons. Whether he’s playing with McDavid, Draisaitl, Auston Matthews or William Nylander, Hyman has always gotten results playing with top players and, typically, helps improve said top players’ possession numbers, as he’s consistently been an analytical darling since his time in Toronto.

Hyman, 32, has amassed 53 goals, 22 assists and 75 points in 76 games, probably the best season of his career (36-47-83 last season).

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has regressed after a 104-point campaign in 2022-23, but is still producing at a top line rate this season (18-48-66 in 76). Adam Henrique was a cheap, yet smart addition for the Oilers at the NHL Trade Deadline; his two-way acumen should prove to be key in a long playoff run. Although he has only appeared in the playoffs twice (New Jersey in 2012 and Anaheim in 2018), Henrique has proven to come up big when the lights get bright, scoring some huge overtime goals for the Devils en route to their Stanley Cup Finals appearance in 2012. The likes of Ryan McLeod and Dylan Holloway are potential X-Factors, too.

I like the makeup of Edmonton’s forward core and I think it’s pretty underrated. Put some respect on them, dammit!

A brief synopsis of their biggest weakness…

Stuart Skinner is a great tandem goalie that is being tasked with the starter’s job in Edmonton, making him the team’s biggest weakness. Skinner’s inconsistency in the blue paint can occasionally prove to be the Achilles tendon of the Oilers: If your team is able to solve him, it’s likely good games and firm handshakes all around. Also, would you trust Calvin Pickard to be the backup for an elite team? I sure as hell wouldn’t.

A lot weighs on Edmonton’s goaltending for them to go on a deep playoff run. If Skinner gets hurt or has a few stinkers, it could be game over for the Oilers.

However, the Oilers are still one of the league’s top threats and could be a surefire bet for a long playoff run. The possession numbers are outstanding, the high-end talent is evident, but their goaltending and occasional defensive mistakes could tarnish their hopes of lifting Lord Stanley, this year.

The best players in the world typically figure it out at some point: So, if you’re going to bet on any Western Conference team, the Oilers would be a great option, but maybe not the definitive number one according to me…