The Go-To Guy: Breaking down the Elias Lindholm acquisition and why it’s a great fit for the Canucks

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Well, there goes my plans for the week.

I’m not complaining, though. I’m all for the chaos.

If you’re not in the know, the Vancouver Canucks acquired Elias Lindholm from the Calgary Flames, with the Flames receiving Andrei Kuzmenko, a 2024 1st round pick, Hunter Brzustewicz, Joni Jurmo, and a conditional 2024 4th round pick in return.

Many view this deal as a win/win for both parties, and I find it difficult to say otherwise. Calgary clearly went for the ‘quantity over quality’ approach, and that’s totally fine. Andrei Kuzmenko has the skill to be an impact player, Hunter Brzustewicz has produced at a high-level in the OHL, and a 1st round pick is never a bad get.

But you’re not reading this to know how Calgary did.

Let’s not waste any time and break down this trade from the Canucks’ perspective.

The player himself + his season so far

I mentioned in my article about Jake Guentzel that familiarity has consistently proven to be a factor whenever the front office has added to this Canucks roster. Look no further than Sam Lafferty, Ian Cole, and Teddy Blueger all being previously brought in by Jim Rutherford’s Pittsburgh Penguins.

Low and behold, they went out and got someone who was drafted by Jim Rutherford back in 2013.

Elias Lindholm is a great get for the Canucks. He’s a versatile top-six forward with a solid track record of top line-caliber production and decent defensive impact.

With all of that said, this season hasn’t been a good one for Lindholm. He’s seen his production drop off significantly and the underlying metrics haven’t loved his performance either.

This tweet from JFreshHockey is a good indicator as to why we’ve seen Lindholm struggle mightily so far this season. While he’s historically been a great player, Lindholm thrives when deployed with top-line talent, especially players that can get him the puck (hence why Gaudreau-Lindholm-Tkachuk was the best line in hockey in 2021-22).

Lindholm had been tasked to be Calgary’s number one forward, and that’s just not the role that’s best suited for him. He doesn’t have to be “the guy” in Vancouver. Lindholm could absolutely thrive if he rides shotgun with someone like Elias Pettersson driving his line. Pettersson hasn’t had quality linemates for the majority of the year, and getting a player with Lindholm’s defensive profile and scoring ability could be a seamless fit.

I fully understand the level of skepticism amongst a portion of the fanbase who may look at what the analytics are suggesting and think “why not a rental like Guentzel, instead?”: but with Lindholm’s scoring profile and defensive ability, this should work; and many of the smartest hockey people seem to agree.

Versatility (mock lineup season!)

Okay, let’s get into the fun stuff.

Elias Lindholm’s versatility was maybe the biggest draw for a Canucks front office that has already grabbed swaths of forwards who can play both in the middle and on the wing. Lindholm has won over 55% of his faceoffs, can play on the penalty kill, and has experience playing both center and right wing.

The Canucks have already mixed and matched their lineup quite a bit this season, and now they have another versatile forward who can play in all situations to further expand the lineup’s flexibility.

Here’s the thing: While many seem to agree that Pettersson would be the best fit to play with Lindholm, I’m not sure if they could go wrong with any line combo.

So… I’ve cooked up some potential lines combos.

Mock Line #1: Mikheyev-Pettersson-Lindholm

This is probably the best case scenario for both Lindholm and the team as a whole, at least on paper.

All three forward’s have a track record of solid defensive play, and Lindholm could finally be the trigger man that Pettersson has so desperately needed this season. Not only that, but Lindholm can lessen Pettersson’s workload in the defensive zone, as he won’t be fully responsible for cleaning up messes all by himself.

I’d expect this trio to be a formidable matchup line if given the opportunity.

Mock Line #2: Miller-Pettersson-Lindholm

Lotto Line adjacent.

I would much prefer option one, but if Tocchet opts to load-up the top line, I don’t see how this wouldn’t be a viable option. Miller has historically proven to be an uber-effective play-driver when deployed on the wing, especially with Elias Pettersson.

Adding another Elias to that duo would be unfair.

The problem? Brock Boeser plays his best when deployed with an elite passer, and he’s already such a good fit with Miller and Pettersson. Tasking him with driving the second line would minimize his value.

Mock Line #3: Joshua-Lindholm-Garland

Now THIS is where the lineup flexibility could really prove to be a boon.

If the coaching staff decides to spread the talent, Lindholm could be a great fit alongside Conor Garland, who is one of the better 5v5 play-driving forwards on the Canucks. This line would most-likely be deployed against lesser competition, and Lindholm still wouldn’t be tasked with driving the line since Garland thrives against other teams’ bottom lines.

The question this sparks is what would the rest of the lineup look like?

Teddy Blueger would be the obvious answer at 4C, but what about the top six? Suter-Miller-Boeser has worked in a small sample size, and I think that a player of Nils Höglander’s profile could be a fit with Pettersson and Mikheyev.

Regardless, this is all in good fun, but I think option one is the go-to combo. I just can’t look past the possibility of a Lindholm-Pettersson duo.

What the stats suggest + a revamped power play

Lindholm’s impact at 5v5 has dipped quite a bit this season.

Per moneypuck.com, his 5v5 xG total is a mere 7.5, which means he’s roughly on pace to beat his total of 12.2 last season. Even with these totals not jumping off the page, Lindholm still hasn’t scored at a rate that’s above expected: in fact, he’s been incredibly unlucky so far this season, scoring -3.4 goals above expected.

Add-on the fact that his 5v5 shooting percentage is just 4.8%, his impact may not move that much further up, nor down, but the bounces should be coming; especially if paired with an elite playmaker like Pettersson or Miller.

Lindholm has never been a great play-driver at 5v5. He attacks plays without the puck to get himself in prime scoring areas. That part of his game should be a great complement to the Canucks’ first power play unit.

What makes the Canucks power play so successful? Well, when they’re clicking, J.T. Miller and Quinn Hughes are basically a package-deal of quarterbacks. While Hughes mans the point, Miller’s IQ from the left flank is wildly impressive, and usually acts as a dual-threat (same as Hughes).

Elias Pettersson has one of the best shots in the entire NHL, that in itself is self-explanatory.

Then there’s Brock Boeser, who has made a living in both the bumper and net-front positions. I think that Boeser is best-suited to be the net-front guy, so bringing in one of the most effective bumper shooter’s in the entire league adds another element to the Canucks’ already lethal power play.

Both players can swap in and out of each position, meaning Lindholm also provides versatility in that regard, as well.

So yeah, I like the trade for Vancouver. I think Lindholm will fit like a glove in Vancouver’s system. It’s just a shame that we have to wait ’til Tuesday to see him make his Canucks debut.

For now, enjoy the NHL All-Star break!

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