The Go-To Guy: Why Jake Guentzel would be a great fit for the Canucks

Posted on by

The All-Star break has begun for most teams in the NHL, and one of those team’s just so happens to reside in the beautiful city of Vancouver.

Fresh off of a 5-4 comeback victory over the Columbus Blue Jackets, the Canucks set their sights to Toronto where five players (Quinn Hughes, J.T. Miller, Elias Pettersson, Thatcher Demko, Brock Boeser) and head coach Rick Tocchet will all participate in the annual All-Star festivities.

While their vacations may be shortened, some Canucks brass have already begun their days off, including Nils Höglander, who has opted to go for a slightly more ‘out of the box’ vacation approach…

Sturgeon fishing.

You do you, king.

Despite it now being the All-Star break, don’t be surprised if General Manager Patrik Allvin starts working the phones. In fact, I’m writing this on January 30, which means it’s the one-year anniversary of the Bo Horvat trade.

The current regime has proven to be aggressive time and time again. Whether it be the aforementioned Horvat trade, flipping some of those assets for Filip Hronek, or splurging nearly ~$20 million to acquire Ilya Mikheyev in the regime’s inaugural free agency.

This lot is not afraid to make a move if they think it will make the team better, and that’s not a surprise considering the team’s President of Hockey Operations is Jim Rutherford. You don’t just get the nickname “Trader Jim” for nothing. He’s earned it.

A common theme with this front office is that most of the new personnel they’ve brought in have been linked with Allvin and Rutherford in the past, (i.e. Rick Tocchet, Sam Lafferty, and Teddy Blueger). Familiarity has proven to be a big factor when bringing in new faces, and I don’t think that’s going to change any time soon.

With the NHL Trade Deadline closing in, teams more-or-less know where they stand. I mean, the Canucks certainly do, they’re first place in the entire league and are dominating at a level the city hasn’t seen since 2011. They’re on pace to become the greatest team in franchise history.

And that’s why they need to go for it.

One player that has been repeatedly linked to the Canucks is Pittsburgh Penguins left winger, Jake Guentzel. The soon-to-be 30-year-old winger has put up a wildly impressive resume over his eight seasons in the NHL, winning a Stanley Cup in his rookie year, and reaching the 40-goal plateau twice.

While I’m not sure if acquiring a rental would be the smartest piece of business for the club, Guentzel is probably the best rental option on the market.

And, again, familiarity is key here, as Allvin played a big part in drafting Guentzel in 2012.

So, if there aren’t any long-term options available, why would Jake Guentzel be such a seamless fit?

A mix of goal-scoring and play-driving

Whether they opt for a rental or not, the Canucks need a top-six forward that can control play. Not only can Guentzel do just that, he does it at an extremely high level.

Guentzel has proven to be an elite chance creator for years, especially at 5v5.

That’s exactly what the doctor ordered for Vancouver. While they are shooting the absolute lights out of the league, there really isn’t anyone not named Elias Pettersson who can create a ton of chances at 5v5, at least in the top-six. The only other forward who profiles as such would be Conor Garland, but I don’t know how you could possibly split that third line up.

While JFreshHockey‘s model is bullish on his play-driving ability, it’s not the same when it comes to his finishing. While that may look surprising, it doesn’t actually shock me all that much.

Guentzel isn’t a one-shot weapon akin to a Brock Boeser or an Auston Matthews. The way he scores is by generating dangerous chances at a high volume, and he has a shot that’s good enough to score on a good chunk of them. The winger has already amassed 22 goals through 46 games this season, meaning he has a very good chance of reaching the 40-goal mark for the third time in his career.

Per Moneypuck, Guentzel has generated a whopping 13.63 xGF (expected goals-for) at 5v5 this season, leading the Penguins in that category. For reference, the Canucks leader in that category is Ilya Mikheyev with an xGF of 8.924.

If a player generates chances at the sheer volume that Guentzel does, he’s gonna score.

If the Canucks were to acquire the star-level winger, I don’t think there’s a wrong answer as to who to put him with. J.T. Miller has been a one-shot weapon throughout his time in Vancouver, and Elias Pettersson could absolutely thrive with another play-driver.

No matter who he’s put with, Guentzel would instantly become the Canucks’ best 5v5 play-driver, and wouldn’t have to ride a stupidly high shooting percentage to score at a high rate.

He’s a proven playoff warrior

“Veteran leadership”, “playoff experience”, and “cup-winning grit” are phrases that haunt Canucks fans due to the sins of Jim Benning, who’d overpay depth pieces for those intangible qualities, instead of paying up for the higher-end pieces with said intangibles.

If the Canucks want a guy with those qualities, Jake Guentzel would probably be the most desirable piece to acquire.

Look no further than his inaugural playoff appearance, which saw the then-23-year-old score 13 goals (11 at even-strength) and 21 points in 25 games, with 4 of those goals coming in the Stanley Cup Final vs the Nashville Predators.

Pekka Rinne may have been “too good right now”, but Guentzel found a way to torch the Finnish netminder, en route to a Stanley Cup.

The Penguins didn’t find that same success in the following year, but Guentzel sure did. With 21 points in just 12(!!!!!) games the following postseason, the Minnesota-born winger proved that the dominance he displayed the previous year wasn’t a fluke.

Guentzel’s playoff production skidded in the following years, but the Penguins weren’t the force that they were in years prior.

Then came the 2022 playoffs.

Guentzel was fresh off of his 2nd 40-goal campaign (with 84 points), and the Penguins had to face a red-hot New York Rangers squad in the first round. While they dropped a game seven heartbreaker in overtime, Guentzel was, again, an absolute monster, tallying 10 points in 7 games.

Oh yeah, 7 of those 10 points were goals.

Even though the Canucks have only made the playoffs once since the start of the Elias Pettersson era, that one run had the Canucks’ top guns performing at the apex of their abilities. Pettersson (7-11-18) and Miller (6-12-18) were over a point-per-game, with Quinn Hughes being one point shy of that mark (2-14-16). And, I mean, Thatcher Demko had one of the best three-game playoff stretches by any goalie in NHL history. I don’t have any doubt that he’ll be a monster when given the opportunity to play a full run.

While it was the weird 24-team year, those Canucks were four years younger than they are now. Pettersson and Hughes especially impressed at ages 21 and 20, and they’ve leveled-up significantly since then.

Adding a proven playoff monster to a team looking to break through would be a sharp, sharp bet. Guentzel comes up in big moments, something that this team has been lacking in their 54-year history (no, I’m not talking about Luongo).

While a longer term solution is preferred, Guentzel would still be an incredible fit for this Canucks team. An elite play-driver, goal-scorer, and proven playoff ace, Jake Guentzel would be a great get for any team; and an absolute no-brainer for a Canucks team ready to go all-in.

Bring me the Trade Deadline chaos. I’m all for it.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *