The Go-To Guy: The Höglander hype isn’t just real, it’s justified

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Have you heard the news? HögMania is taking over the city, and everyone is excited.

Nils Höglander has been one of my personal favourite players for a few years. His mix of tenacity, speed, and flash is a fascinating toolset, profiling unlike any other forward the Canucks have had in quite some time.

I really don’t know where Höglander’s trajectory will take him, he’s a total wild card. He could profile as a Jannik Hansen-type with more agility and flashy stickwork, or he could end up being a star-caliber forward due to the level of production he’s had in limited minutes throughout his NHL career.

I legitimately have no idea what to think of this player in the long term, but what I know now is that he is a wildly entertaining player, and one that I hope sticks around in Vancouver for years to come.

I believe in Nils Höglander, and why shouldn’t I? I know he is on an absolutely ridiculous shooting percentage heater at the moment, but I think there are avenues for this player to put up even better production over the coming years.

If you’re a Nils Höglander like me and want some in-depth analysis as to why I think the Canucks may have a seriously good player in their back pocket, you’re in the right place.

The uber-impressive rookie season

I don’t think it’s a particularly astute observation that Nils Höglander was rushed into the NHL, thanks in large-part to Jim Benning opting to not re-up many key players in the 2020 off-season; as well as not signing any top-six forwards… at all.

So, the then-20 year-old Höglander got the nod to start the 2021 season on the 2nd line with Tanner Pearson and Bo Horvat. While many were high on the Hög, it wasn’t a secret that he was being mismanaged by the team.

While the team didn’t have *any* success that season, Höglander did, scoring in his NHL debut vs the Edmonton Oilers.

Höglander made a name for himself by being a true competitor. While only standing at 5’9″, Höglander used his speed and agility to create offence and pick-pocket opposing players, whilst also boasting high-level stickhandling ability at such a young age.

That part of his game was well-documented during his time in Sweden, as well as the World Juniors. We haven’t seen the borderline excessive amount of Michigan goals and between-the-legs shots from Höglander in the NHL yet, but I feel like it’s only a matter of time.

The main issue with his rookie year was that his defensive game was still pretty raw. I mean, he was a 20 year-old playing in the National Hockey League, that’s to be expected.

Höglander finished the season with 14 goals and 27 points through 56 games, and instantly became a fan-favourite in Vancouver. Some thought that the Canucks had a potential star and I can totally see why. A near 0.5 point-per-game clip at age 20 is a rare stat-line, and players who produce at *that* clip at *that* age typically end up becoming high-end contributors.

It hasn’t happened yet, but it’s still possible that Höglander could be a consistent, top-six forward in the coming years.

His 5v5 scoring has always been there

Höglander has never been given substantial power play time, and that includes the second unit. Even when he would get the occasional looks on PP2 under Travis Green, Bruce Boudreau essentially put Höglander in the doghouse throughout his tenure as Canucks’ bench boss.

After a successful playoff run in Abbotsford which saw the young Swede amass six points through all-six playoff games, it was time for Höglander to make the jump to become an NHL regular in the 2023-24 season.

Not only has he become a fixture in the lineup, he leads the team in 5v5 goals (14).

Höglander has been on a heater which could only be compared to that of Pink Floyd in the 70s. No matter what he does, he can’t miss, shooting at a near 17% clip so far this season.

According to MoneyPuck, Höglander has generated 8.28 expected goals and 1.03 expected goals p/60 at 5v5, meaning he has scored roughly 6 goals above what has been expected. He’s generating a fair amount of offence, no doubt; but the counting stats are obviously a little bit inflated.

I mean, when you’re sniping the biscuit like this, none of those stats come as a surprise.

I wouldn’t worry about a vast level of regression once he plays higher in the lineup in the coming years, and I’m actually a firm believer that he could actually expand his totals with more opportunity.

Höglander has been a consistently admirable play-driver at 5v5 throughout his career, and has scored at an impressive clip in sheltered minutes.

I’m going to lean on MoneyPuck again, but just in case you’re not sure, points per/60 (points per 60 minutes) is a stat that typically is used for players in Höglander’s situation, where his counting stats don’t jump off the page because of limited minutes. Think of it as a points per game metric that’s adjusted for every 60 minutes an individual plays. Since Höglander typically averages roughly 10 minutes a night, he reaches the 60 minute mark every ~6 games.

For perspective, Höglander recorded just 9 points through 25 games, but his points per/60 was 1.79, meaning he was making the most of his very, very limited minutes. In his rookie year, he managed a 1.87 points per/60, which is wildly impressive, especially for a 20 year-old rookie playing primarily top-six minutes.

So, how is he doing this season?

Nils Höglander currently has a points per/60 of 2.41.

I get that he has found success in a limited role, and I actually think they should keep him there (for now), but this really jumps off the page. I don’t think this is just a player riding a random heater, I think that there’s a legitimate chance that this is a young player making the most of his opportunity.

I’m just happy for him, honestly. Höglander deserves a bigger role, but with how he’s fit on the fourth line, along with how the rest of the team has played as of late, it’s justifiable as to why he hasn’t been given more time to cook this year. Just give him some more time on PP2, for crying out loud.

Finding a mix of north/south and east/west

Höglander has adapted to Rick Tocchet’s north/south style of hockey, and it’s a style that suits his toolkit.

The unique thing about Höglander is how he combines north/south and east/west hockey. His relentless forechecking showcases his speed and stickwork, but he’s able to create space with the puck using his edges, and the same can be said for when he’s in the defensive zone; as he has improved tremendously at stripping the puck from opponents by using east/west skating ability.

These factors have driven his success this season, but there’s still one more avenue for him to level-up even more. I am confident in Höglander becoming a 40-50 point guy in a middle-six role, but we still haven’t seen the creativity and flashiness that he showed in Sweden.

It’s not hard to imagine what it could look like if Höglander is able to combine the flashier parts of his game with what we’ve seen this season, and I’m not just talking about the lacrosse goals. If he were put in a position where he was a complementary play-driver as opposed to being the main driver on a line, Höglander will have more space to create chances whilst also giving the puck to more skilled players.

It doesn’t have to be this season, but Nils Höglander deserves a long look in the Canucks’ top-six, and he’s proved it.

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