As the MLB offseason continues towards the winter meetings next week, most teams are still in the hunt for some of the game’s biggest free agents. When the postseason hits, it always seems evident that pitching is king.
The teams that have a couple of top-flight starting pitchers and bullpens seem to always have a great shot at making it to the World Series. Teams can acquire pitchers through free agency as well as via trades, with price tag impacting each team’s decision.
From @TheAthletic: The first two weeks of Shohei Ohtani’s free agency have generated breathless intrigue and a growing list of suitors. But it has not solved the central mystery: Everyone wants him. And no one is quite sure what he wants. https://t.co/3wyq7dzoB0
— The New York Times (@nytimes) November 21, 2023
Pitchers off the board
We’ve already had three of the top available free agents come off the board, with Aaron Nola returning to the Philadelphia Phillies (7 years, $172 million), Kenta Maeda joining the Detroit Tigers (2 years, $24 million), and Sonny Gray just recently joining the St. Louis Cardinals (3 years, $75 million). From a value stand point, I like the Maeda deal best, especially, as he’s shown no signs of slowing down despite being 36 years old. I have a feeling the Nola contract will look bad for the Phillies in a couple of years, as they may be paying for past success compared to future value. He had an almost identical fielding independent pitching (FIP) ERA as Maeda did last year (4.03 vs 4.02), but will earn quite a bit more money on an annual basis.
The elite (and expensive) options
It will be interesting to see where the other top pitchers on the market end up going. I believe there are three elite options left: Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
Ohtani’s inevitable massive contract has been well documented, and remains the best option for teams that could afford him. Snell is coming off his second Cy Young award, and is likely to sign a deal similar in length and money to Nola’s deal. I have a feeling that whoever signs Snell will likely regret it down the road, similar to the Phillies and Aaron Nola. The biggest mystery in this group is Yamamoto, who will enter the Major Leagues after dominating in the Nippon Professional League. Since he’s only 25, Yamamoto is sure to receive a long term deal. Teams may be skeptical given the unknown nature, but there’s a good chance that he’ll be a star early on in his career.
Values to be found elsewhere
Eduardo Rodriguez is a player who has quietly been a steady pitcher for a number of years, but playing for the Tigers has kept him under the radar. With a 3.66 FIP last year, Rodriguez would be a solid 2 or 3 pitcher for somebody next year, and may come at a much cheaper price than some of the top guys.
Clayton Kershaw is 36 years old, but his numbers were still solid in 2023. It’s best to temper expectations with the future Hall of Famer, as he will no longer be an ace type of pitcher. If a team signs Kershaw to a 1 or 2 year deal expecting him to be their 3rd starter, I’m sure they would be pleased with the results.
There are a number of pitchers potentially available via trade that may not be obvious to the general population. One guy that may or may not get moved, but yet I’m high on as a bounce back candidate, is Dylan Cease. After finishing 2nd in AL Cy Young voting in 2022, the wheels came off for the young lefthander in 2023. There’s reason to believe that he got a bit unlucky last year, as his left on base percentage fell from 82.3% to 69.4%. Cease won’t be a free agent until 2026, so it remains to be seen whether the White Sox would demand a big return.