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If you’re one of those people who loves to quickly label draft picks, then this article is for you. I’m going to be looking back at the first overall picks from the last five NHL drafts. All of these players are at different stages of their careers. Some have solidified themselves as stars in the league, while others are still trying to find their footing.
If you’re on the opposite end of the spectrum and don’t like to grade draft picks because you think for some players it’s too small of a sample size, I don’t disagree. But this is for fun. So let’s get after it.
2024 – Macklin Celebrini Grade: A
Celebrini has had a terrific rookie season so far in San Jose. Even though he missed 12 games, Celebrini never hit the rookie wall that most rookies do. At just 18 years old, he’s shown that he can take over games and play with some of the best players in the world. He is second in rookie scoring with 62 points, but first in points per game. He has some of the best hands in the league and is an elite passer.
But one thing about his game that I feel isn’t getting enough recognition is his shot. He can absolutely snipe. He has 24 goals and it shouldn’t come as a surprise. I’ve seen him pick corners like nothing, trust me, this kid is a goalie’s worst nightmare. Remember, he’s just getting started. I expect him to take an even bigger jump next season. He should make Team Canada’s Olympic team and continue to put up points. As the Sharks continue to improve, so will Celebrini and he’ll be one of the best players in the NHL.
2023 – Connor Bedard Grade: B+
Going into his draft year, Bedard was the most hyped-up prospect since Connor McDavid. He had two outstanding seasons in the WHL with the Regina Pats, winning WHL and CHL Player of the Year in 2023. Bedard scored in his first career NHL game, and that set the tone for the rest of the season. He finished his rookie season with 61 points in 68 games and won the Calder Trophy.
However, his production dipped slightly in his sophomore season. But I don’t think Bedard is completely at fault. There was a point this season where, statistically speaking, Bedard was playing with the worst linemates in the NHL. That’s on management—they need to put him in the best possible situation to succeed, and they haven’t done that. He has a lethal shot and will be a 50-goal scorer in this league. I have no doubt in my mind that Bedard will live up to all the hype and expectations around him. But after this season, I have to give him a B+. Trust me, when it’s all said and done, I expect that to change to an A.
2022 – Juraj Slafkovsky Grade: B
Slafkovsky’s first year and a half in the NHL was nothing to write home about. But we knew why the Montreal Canadiens invested the first overall pick in him. He has everything you want in a great hockey player. He brings physicality and toughness, he can skate really well, and he has a great shot. It was just a matter of time before he settled into being a full-time NHLer.
That’s what he did in the middle of his second season. Slafkovsky finished that year with 20 goals and 50 points. This year was a similar story, his production started to come in the second half of the season. But he’s playing on the top line with Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield, and Montreal is on the verge of clinching a playoff spot. Slafkovsky has been a key part of that and will only continue to get better.
2021 – Owen Power Grade: C+
Power might be the toughest draft pick here to grade, largely because he plays in Buffalo. The Sabres haven’t had much success, and a lot of their star players don’t produce. Power is a 35–40 point player, which isn’t bad for a defenceman. He wasn’t drafted for his offence, but instead for his steady defensive game. His defence has been up and down the last couple of years. He’s taken some strides, but I was hoping he would’ve made Team Canada at the Four Nations Face-Off.
He’s only 22 and still has tons of time to grow, but I’m hoping to see him take a leap next season.
2020 – Alexis Lafrenière Grade: C
CHL Rookie of the Year, QMJHL Player of the Year (twice), CHL Player of the Year (twice), World Junior Gold—these were the accolades Lafrenière had won before even being drafted. So yeah, you expected elite production in the NHL. But for some reason, that hasn’t been the case.
He struggled mightily in his first two seasons and has slowly started to get better. His career high in points is 57, and that came last season. This season, he only has 45 points with two games remaining. He has all the talent in the world and showed it in junior—but that hasn’t translated to the NHL. Not what you want in a first overall pick.
These were my grades for the last five first overall picks. Let me know what you would change in the comments below.